Comparative analysis of fuelwood weight loss and energy efficiency in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

Fuelwood is still the predominant energy source in Bayelsa State, Nigeria; nevertheless, its combustion dynamics, weight loss characteristics, and energy efficiency are inadequately understood. This paper conducts a comprehensive experimental and statistical investigation of fuelwood combustion. It evaluates exponential and polynomial regression models to find the best precise predictive method. We quantified the weight loss of four varieties of fuelwood Ele, Mangrove, Osuwo, and Akor when combusted in a regulated setting. The findings show that polynomial regression significantly outperforms exponential models. It shows elevated R² values (0.9975–0.9980) and reduced RMSE scores, proving superior alignment with actual combustion data. An energy efficiency check shows that Akor exhibits superior combustion efficiency due to reduced weight loss and enhanced mass retention. Conversely, Osuwo combusts rapidly, making it inefficient for prolonged heating purposes. Monte Carlo simulations evaluated uncertainty in weight loss trends, confirming polynomial regression. The fuelwood selection model was created to maximize consumption according to energy efficiency and sustainability standards. The results show that higher-order polynomial regression is the most precise method for predicting fuelwood combustion. This shows that biomass energy planning and sustainable fuelwood legislation.