Ecological Zoning Based on Suitability Evaluation of Ecological Product Development from the Value-Risk-Cost-Demand Perspective

Current ecological value assessment models predominantly emphasize the potential value of ecological resources, neglecting the crucial aspect of value realization processes. Analyzing the value of ecological resources from the perspective of ecological products (EPs) is more instructive in realizing ecological values. The key factors controlling the realization of ecological product value are potential value, ecological risk, development costs, and human demand. Previous research has rarely integrated these four factors within the ecological zoning framework. This study proposes a suitability evaluation and zoning framework for ecological product development based on the “value-risk-cost-demand” perspective. First, an evaluation index system for the potential value of ecological products was developed, dividing EPs into ecological agriculture (EA), ecological industry (EI), and ecological tourism (ET), and assessing them using 13 indicators. Ecological risks were modeled using multi-scale patch analysis (MSPA) and other models. Development costs were estimated using cost entropy. The impact of population dynamics on EP demand was quantified using population density, night-time light data, and average land GDP, along with stacked buffer analysis. Next, an improved TOPSIS method was applied to integrate these four dimensions, producing a comprehensive suitability assessment for EP development. Finally, EP zoning was determined by overlaying the comprehensive evaluation results. This framework was used to identify the dominant mode zones of EPs within the region of Jintan District, Jiangsu Province, China. The findings suggest that the integrated assessment model proposed in this study has produced more reasonable outcomes in terms of spatial layout, land use area, reduction of fragmentation and ecological risk. This conclusion is supported by spatial distribution comparisons, optimal area deviation analyses, landscape index calculations and multi-model driven future simulations. This model effectively resolves the spatial mismatch present in the traditional approach, which solely focuses on the potential value of EPs. This study can be applied to other regions with developed economies and rich ecological resources, providing an effective reference for the choice of paths to realize the value of EPs.