A Data-Driven Method for Determining DRASTIC Weights to Assess Groundwater Vulnerability to Nitrate: Application in the Lake Baiyangdian Watershed, North China Plain

Nitrate pollution due to agricultural activities challenges the management of groundwater resources. The most popular technique used for groundwater vulnerability assessments is the DRASTIC. The subjectivity introduced by the DRASTIC has always been questioned. Therefore, the determination of rating scores and weights of parameters has become the main difficulty in DRASTIC applications. In this paper, a new data-driven weighting method based on Monte Carlo or genetic algorithm was developed. The new method considers both single factors and the relationship among factors, overcomes the subjectivity of weight determination, and is theoretically applicable to various hydrogeological environments and as a general weight determination method. In addition, a new method for the verification of the evaluation results on a temporal scale was established, which is based on changes in the nitrate concentration over the past 20 years. To verify and test these methods, they were used for the evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to nitrate in the plain area of the Baiyangdian watershed in the North China Plain and compared with other commonly used methods. The Pearson correlation coefficient increased by 15%. From a time perspective, the changes in nitrate concentration confirmed that the correctness of the assessment is 88%. In this study, the effect of the revision of the rating ranges on the improvement of the evaluation results is very obvious. Therefore, the focus of future work should be on determining the rating ranges and their rating scores, and whether the corresponding weights based on the data-driven method will yield more reliable results.