Social-economic determinant of air travel demands in Africa

Air travel plays a critical role in fostering economic growth, regional integration, and connectivity, yet its demand dynamics in Africa remain underexplored. This study investigates the elasticity of air travel demand in Africa, focusing on the influence of socioeconomic factors and exploring non-linear dynamics. Our findings reveal that income and wealth are robust determinants of air travel demand, with higher levels of both leading to increased demand across all models. Education and exchange rates also positively impact air travel, while inflation exerts a negative influence. Notably, country size and infrastructural development emerge as significant factors, reinforcing the importance of geographic scale and infrastructure in shaping air travel patterns. Additionally, our analysis uncovers non-linear dynamics, particularly the diminishing returns of rising income and fuel prices on air travel demand. The results highlight a complex relationship where initial increases in income and fuel prices boost demand, but this effect wanes as these factors continue to grow. The interaction effects show that tourism amplifies income's impact on air travel, while high greenhouse gas emissions and aviation fuel prices, coupled with exchange rate volatility, hinder infrastructural benefits, reducing demand. These insights suggest that policymakers should consider these dynamics and prioritise sustainable infrastructural development and targeted economic policies to foster growth in the African air travel sector. • We estimated the socioeconomic determinant of air travel demands in Africa • Income and wealth are primary determinants of air travel demand in Africa, with higher levels leading to increased demand across models. • Educational attainment and exchange rates positively influence air travel, while inflation negatively impacts demand. • Country size and infrastructural development significantly shape air travel patterns, emphasising the importance of geographic scale. • Non-linear dynamics reveal diminishing returns on air travel demand from rising income and fuel prices. • Tourism amplifies income's impact on air travel, while high greenhouse gas emissions and fuel prices reduce demand by undermining infrastructural benefits.