From conflict to a climate future: Unraveling the nexus between warfare and environmental degradation

The natural environment in conflict zones is often severely impacted by warfare, with long-lasting effects on water resources and ecosystems. The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has had a significant impact on the region's natural ecosystem. This study investigates the effects of conflict on these natural resources and assess whether the act of war and conflict resulting in severe climate change scenarios and associated negative consequences for the environment. Using a fixed-effect regression model and panel data from 2000 to 2022, the study shows that military expenditures, weaponry imports, and conflicts affect water productivity. The Granger causality estimates reveal that military expenditures and conflict Granger cause water reservoirs while arms imports cause carbon emissions. Furthermore, the study forecasts that arms emissions would likely cause greater pressure on natural environment, followed by carbon emissions, war/conflict, military spending, and arms imports.