Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptive Behavior Among Smallholder Farmers in Northeast Madagascar

Climate change is impacting the food security and health of people worldwide, and the risk for smallholder farmers is particularly high. While many studies have forecast changes to food production at regional scales, fewer studies have directly assessed the effects of climate change on agricultural communities and the factors that influence climate adaptation at local scales. We surveyed 479 smallholder farmers in two villages in rural northeast Madagascar to characterize their perceived changes in rainfall and temperature, the impact of these changes on their livelihoods, health, and food security, and ways that they are altering their farming practices to adapt to climate change. We hypothesized that farmers with greater market-based wealth and more farming experience would have higher odds of adaptation. We also hypothesized that farming practices among an individual’s peers (friends, family, and neighbors) would influence their climate change adaptation strategies. Nearly all participants reported perceiving increases in temperature (94%) and decreases in rainfall (91%) in the previous five years, and most reported that they expect to have much less (57%) or somewhat less (35%) food to feed their families in the future due to changes in temperature and rainfall. Despite these concerns, few participants (21%) reported changing their farming practices to adapt to climate change. Farmers who had greater market-based wealth had higher odds of adopting new farming methods (model averaged OR [95% CI]: 1.37 [1.09-1.73]), and men had higher odds of adopting new farming methods than women (model averaged OR [95% CI]: 2.08 [1.27-3.41]). Farming experience and peers’ farming practices were not associated with adaptation. These results suggest that climate change is a significant challenge for farmers in northeast Madagascar, yet adaptation is limited by existing socioeconomic inequalities involving access to market activities and gender.