Validation of Wind and PV Power Generation Using Historical and Forecast Weather Data

This paper presents a comparative analysis of renewable energy power output using forecast weather with different margins and historical weather data as benchmarks for selected days. The analysis evaluates the accuracy and performance trends of solar and wind forecasts against historical data, focusing on uncertainties at various forecast horizons. The benchmark hourly power generation data is used to compute relative errors, providing insights into temporal variations. Visualizations highlight the alignment between forecast trends and historical patterns, qualitatively assessing weather impacts on generation. The results for wind generation indicate that a seven-day forecast can achieve an accuracy of 80 percent, while a five-day forecast can reach an accuracy of approximately 90 percent. However, forecasts beyond ten days are only about 50 percent or less accurate compared to actual data. In contrast, the results for solar generation show comparable levels of accuracy throughout the entire forecast date but with higher average error values. This information is useful for grid operation, planning, electricity market, reliability and resilience studies and energy management.