Trend and Correlation Analysis of Instagram Activity Using Data Mining and Statistics

With the growing importance of social media for brand engagement, there remains a limited understanding of how specific metrics-such as Reach, Followers, and New Followers-impact Instagram user interaction over time. This research seeks to address this gap by examining which variables most effectively drive Engagement on Instagram, providing insights for strategic content optimization. Through an analysis of 100 posts, using multiple linear regression and decision tree methods, the study investigates the relationship between Reach, Followers, New Followers, and Engagement. Results indicate that Reach, Followers, and New Followers are not statistically significant predictors of Engagement, as evidenced by high p-values (all> 0.05). Decision tree results demonstrate a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.0226 and an <tex xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">$\mathrm{R}^{2}$</tex> Score of 0.8003, suggesting moderate predictive accuracy but with potential for refinement. Moving average analysis reveals fluctuating Engagement with no stable long-term trend. A correlation matrix further shows that Reach and New Followers exhibit high correlations with Engagement (0.9723 and 0.9707, respectively), while Followers show a weak correlation (0.2575). These findings highlight the limited impact of Followers on Engagement, underscoring the importance of Reach and New Followers. This study contributes novel insights by identifying key engagement drivers, emphasizing the need for more targeted strategies in Instagram campaign planning to enhance user interaction.