Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change
Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.
Authors
- Kauane Maiara Bordin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3871-6293)
- Fernanda C. Souza (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8943-9113)
- Sandra Cristina Müller (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6316-2897)
- David Neill (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5143-9430)
- Guido Pardo
- José Manuel Reyna Huaymacari
- Anand Roopsind (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4682-1774)
- Walter A. Palacios (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0350-0399)
- Foster Brown (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1877-0866)
- Olaf Bánki (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6197-9951)
- Sandra Dı́az (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0012-4612)
- Flavio Antônio Maës dos Santos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4329-6214)
- Ted R. Feldpausch (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-7962)
- William Frederick Laurance (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4430-9408)
- Susan G. W. Laurance (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2831-2933)
- Carlos Reynel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6173-9023)
- Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4504-3050)
- Zorayda Restrepo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3213-9985)
- Jos Barlow (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4992-2594)
- Aurora Levesley (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7999-5519)
- Jorcely Barroso (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3017-9462)
- Yadvinder Singh Malhi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3503-4783)
- Javier E. Silva‐Espejo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1954-3817)
- José Javier Corral‐Rivas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2851-7517)
- Bert van Ulft (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8653-2312)
- Agustín Rudas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9070-2588)
- Marcos Silveira (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0485-7872)
- Everton Cristo de Almeida (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3039-5440)
- Joeri A. Zwerts (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3841-6389)
- Brian Joseph Enquist (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6124-7096)
- Jason Vleminckx (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7600-9170)
- R. Toby Pennington (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8196-288X)
- Joice Klipel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3936-9692)
- Fabrício Beggiato Baccaro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4747-1857)
- James A. Comiskey (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6710-1269)
- Carolina V. Castilho (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1064-2758)
- Joey Talbot (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6520-4560)
- Sami W. Rifai (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3400-8601)
- Bruno Hérault (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6950-7286)
- Vincent Antoine Vos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0388-8530)
- Beatriz Schwantes Marimon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3105-2914)
- Gonzalo Rivas‐Torres (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2704-8288)
- Imma Oliveras Menor (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5345-2236)
- Nigel C. A. Pitman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9211-2880)
- Beatriz Salgado‐Negret (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3103-9878)
- Oliver Lawrence Phillips (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8993-6168)
- William E. Magnusson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1988-3950)
- William Farfán-Ríos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3196-0317)
- Sonia Palacios‐Ramos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0325-6047)
- Abel Monteagudo Mendoza (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1047-845X)
- Verginia Wortel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1224-8025)
- Jhon del Águila Pasquel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2103-7390)
- Isau Huamantupa‐Chuquimaco (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4153-5875)
- Norma Salinas (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9941-2109)
- Kátia Janaína Zanini (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2150-5916)
- Laura B. Vedovato (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7795-9269)
- Varun Swamy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9203-212X)
- Gerardo Flores Llampazo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6026-0275)
- Michelle Kalamandeen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5385-7444)
- Antônio C. L. da Costa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8140-4020)
- John Terborgh (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8238-4583)
- Mathias Disney (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2407-4026)
- Claire Fortunel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8367-1605)
- Pieter A. Zuidema (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8100-1168)
- Henrique Eduardo Mendonça Nascimento (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3476-401X)
- María Guadalupe Nava‐Miranda (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5983-2053)
- Lourens Poorter (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1391-4875)
- Jesús Aguirre‐Gutiérrez (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9190-3229)
- Julio Daniel do Vale (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3354-4541)
- Nayane Cristina Candida dos Santos Prestes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8229-8231)
- David Galbraith (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5555-4823)
- Jérôme Chave (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7766-1347)
- Esteban Álvarez‐Dávila (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9032-0099)
- Rodolfo Vásquez (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2282-5009)
- Nadir Pallqui Camacho (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4596-0905)
- Masha T. van der Sande (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6845-2308)
- Roy González‐M. (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4346-998X)
- Frans Bongers (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8431-6189)
- Camila V. J. Silva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4867-9871)
- Richarlly da Costa Silva (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8312-760X)
- Luciana F. Alves (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8944-1851)
- Christopher Baraloto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7322-8581)
- Ana Belén Hurtado‐M (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2765-4966)
- Vitor de Andrade Kamimura (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3276-5812)
- Carlos Alfredo Joly (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7945-2805)
- James William Dalling (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6488-9895)
- Simone Aparecida Vieira (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0129-4181)
- E.J.M.M. Arets (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7209-9028)
- E. Jiménez (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8610-1771)
- Rodrigo Scarton Bergamin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2405-9977)
- Luiz E. O. C. Aragão (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4134-6708)
- Edmar Almeida de Oliveira (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6446-3376)
- Fernando Cornejo Valverde (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6635-4184)
- Emilio Vilanova (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6289-5127)
- Omar Aurelio Melo Cruz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5266-4966)
- Ana Andrade (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8550-1127)
- Géraldine Derroire (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7239-2881)
- Anthony Di Fiore (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8893-9052)
- Ricardo de Oliveira Perdiz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2333-6549)
- Rayana Caroline Picolotto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4365-9062)
- Paulo S. Morandi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8151-7738)
- Fernanda Coelho de Souza (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3919-4493)
- Maxime Réjou‐Méchain (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2824-267X)
- Rubens Manoel dos Santos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4075-462X)
- Hans ter Steege (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8738-2659)
- Valéria Forni Martins (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0092-5674)
- Simone Matias Reis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2318-874X)
- Érika Berenguer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8157-8792)
- Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2314-590X)
- Robert Muscarella (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3039-1076)
- Flávia Delgado Santana (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3523-2456)
- Plínio Barbosa de Camargo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0696-3778)
- Ben Hur Marimon-Junior (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6359-6281)
- Geertje van der Heijden (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2110-5173)
- Gerardo A. Aymard C. (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-0508)
- Martin J. P. Sullivan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5955-0483)
- Roel Brienen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5397-5755)
- Damien Bonal (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9602-8603)
- Rafael Flora Ramos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6495-3415)
- Lilian Blanc (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3605-4230)
- Peter van der Meer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1273-3116)
- Rafael Herrera (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6843-4663)
- Timothy R. Baker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3251-1679)
- Wilmar López Oviedo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5637-1546)
- Carlos A. Quesada
- Miles R. Silman
- Adriana Prieto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7140-6599)
- Sophie Fauset (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4246-1828)
- Hirma Ramírez‐Angulo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6007-9978)
- John J. Pipoly (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7977-9496)
- Georgia Pickavance (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-9205-8799)
- Luciana de Oliveira Pereira
- Karina García Cabrera
- Yvonne Vanessa Bakker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9312-961X)
Institutions
- Smithsonian Institution (US)
- Leuphana University of Lüneburg (DE)
- Manchester Metropolitan University (GB)
- Uppsala University (SE)
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PA)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Naturalis Biodiversity Center (NL)
- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (BR)
- National Park Service (US)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Santa Fe Institute (US)
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (NL)
- Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (FR)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará (BR)
- Universidade Federal de Lavras (BR)
- Conservation International (US)
- Universidade Federal do Acre (BR)
- California Department of Parks and Recreation (US)
- Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE)
- Wildlife Conservation Society (US)
- Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (FR)
- University of Arizona (US)
- University of Nottingham (GB)
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Universidad Nacional de Córdoba (AR)
- Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (GB)
- Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná (BR)
- Universidade Federal de São Carlos (BR)
- Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR)
- Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas (VE)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- Florida International University (US)
- Université de Montpellier (FR)
- Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango (MX)
- Universidade de Santiago de Compostela (ES)
- Universidad de Los Andes (VE)
- Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse (FR)
- AgroParisTech (FR)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Institut Agro Montpellier (FR)
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew (GB)
- Alexander von Humboldt Biological Resources Research Institute (CO)
- Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences (NL)
- University of French Guiana (GF)
- Field Museum of Natural History (US)
- Instituto Sinchi (CO)
- Leverhulme Trust (GB)
- Universidad del Caribe (UNICARIBE) (DO)
- Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (BR)
- Colombia Adventist University (CO)
- Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana (PE)
- National University of Saint Anthony the Abbot in Cuzco (PE)
- University of Tolima (CO)
- University of Florida (US)
- Companhia Energética de São Paulo (BR)
- Universidad de Antioquia (CO)
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia (CO)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Amazon National University of Madre de Dios (PE)
- Institute for Biodiversity (DE)
- Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana (PE)
- Municipality of Medellín (CO)
- Silva (FR)
- Escuela Colombiana de Carreras Industriales (CO)
- Universidad Estatal Amazónica (EC)
- UMR Botanique et Modélisation de l’Architecture des Plantes et des végétations (FR)
- Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (BR)
- ProPacífico (CO)
- Forests and Societies (FR)
- Corporación para Investigaciones Biológicas (CO)
- National Centre for Earth Observation (GB)
- Landesamt für Geologie, Rohstoffe und Bergbau (DE)
- Universidad Técnica del Norte (EC)
- Universidade Estadual de Roraima (BR)
- Universidad de Medellín (CO)
- Forest Research (GB)
- Universidad Autónoma del Beni (BO)
- Universidad Andina del Cusco (PE)
- Real Jardín Botánico (ES)
- Universidade Federal de Roraima (BR)
- Universidad de la Amazonia (CO)
- Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (AR)
- Instituto Federal do Acre (BR)
- Multi Electrical System (Suriname) (SR)
- Vale Technological Institute (BR)
- Géosciences Environnement Toulouse (FR)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
- University College London (GB)
- Wake Forest University (US)
- The University of Adelaide (AU)
- Universidade Federal do Pará (BR)
- Universidade Federal do Amazonas (BR)
- Florida Atlantic University (US)
- Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PE)
- Lancaster University (GB)
- Universidad San Francisco de Quito (EC)
- University of La Serena (CL)
- Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (PE)
- University of Birmingham (GB)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR)
- James Cook University (AU)
- The University of Texas at Austin (US)
- University of Plymouth (GB)
- Université de Lorraine (FR)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Science
- Published
- 2025-03-06
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl5414
- Citations
- 31
- Primary Topic
- Plant and animal studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 93.83
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
- Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
- Comisión Nacional Forestal
- Leverhulme Trust
- Sight Research UK
- University of Oxford
- University of Leeds
- European Commission
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo
- Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Mato Grosso
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Division of Environmental Biology