Megaprojects as sites for resistance: the electoral effects of Mapuche attacks on highways

Abstract Megaprojects are electoral magnets due to their transformative power, but they also raise strong opposition. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, this paper assesses the impact on presidential elections of Mapuche attacks and protests at two strategic road infrastructures. Mapuche uses a repertoire of non-conventional actions in their struggle with the Chilean state seeking self-determination. Estimations reveal that attacks reduce the likelihood of victory for the governing coalition at nearby polling stations, while protests have no effect. We interpret these results as a contest in the symbolic sphere to oppose the narratives of modernity and unity that highways embody.