Carbon emission peaks in countries worldwide and their national drivers

Abstract Estimating the characteristics of CO 2 emission peaks through decoupling relationships is crucial for understanding global CO 2 emissions and mitigating climate change. This study investigated the spatiotemporal patterns and primary sources of global CO 2 emissions from 1990 to 2020. Using the Mann–Kendall test and decoupling index, we identified emission peak characteristics across countries worldwide. Furthermore, the geographically temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was employed to examine the effects of various factors on CO 2 emissions. The results indicate that global CO 2 emissions increased steadily over the study period, with the power industry contributing the most (34.54%–38.62%). Countries were categorized into four groups: no-declined, plateau, passively emission declined, and proactively peaked, comprising 99, 48, 20, and 26 countries, respectively. Notably, 65.4% of proactively peaked countries were developed nations, while 65% of passively emission declined countries were developing nations. CO 2 emissions exhibited positive correlations with carbon intensity, GDP per capita, and the secondary industry but negative correlations with population density, the primary and tertiary industries. These findings provide valuable insights into global CO 2 emission dynamics, highlighting emission peaks and decoupling relationships. This study also offers robust scientific support for policymakers to effectively design tailored strategies for reducing carbon emissions. Graphical Abstract