The natural capital of the Colombian Caribbean Basins. Evidence of rapid anthropic transformation

The Caribbean basins play a crucial role in human settlement. The Colombian Caribbean basins occupy an area of approx. 10 million hectares, located in the country's north. The literature about the economic valuation of ecosystem services and the spatial information on natural resources in the Colombian Caribbean basins was revised through several information sources to document the earliest approximation to the state, spatial distribution, and economic value of the natural capital at the scale of biomes, specific ecosystems, and political-administrative units. Our assessment estimated a natural capital loss of 77.1 billion Int.$2020/year (29% of Colombian GDP in 2020) and a remnant natural capital worth 183 billion Int.$2020/year (68% of Colombia's GDP in 2020) for 15 ecosystem services. This research establishes that a potential expansion in livestock production systems will generate an additional loss of natural capital between 33 and 56 billion Int.$2020/year. Additionally, we include an analysis based on the GLOBIO4 initiative models, identifying future natural capital losses between 12.1 and 95.3 billion Int.$2020/year. Lastly, the policy challenges and gaps in research and management concerning this remaining natural capital in the Colombian Caribe basins are pointed out.