Pricing Analysis of Risk-Averse Supply Chains with Supply Disruption Considering Reference Price Effect

This paper examines the impact of the reference price effect on pricing decisions in a risk-averse supply chain with a dual-sourcing procurement strategy, particularly during single-sourcing supply disruption. To analyze supply chain pricing decisions under non-disrupted and disrupted scenarios, we innovatively use semivariance as a risk measure to effectively avoid the limitations of the traditional variance approach and integrate it into Stackelberg game models. Based on these models, we analyze the impact of the reference price effect, risk aversion, and single-sourcing supply disruption on supply chain members’ pricing decisions. The main findings include the following: the single-sourcing supply disruption degree may increase the price of non-disrupted products and then increase the non-disrupted supplier’s utility; the strength of the reference price effect positively influences retailer utility but negatively impacts product pricing for supply chain members; the pricing decisions and utility of supply chain members are influenced by their risk aversion, and supply chain members with higher risk aversion adopt more conservative pricing strategies and consequently obtain lower utility; and equilibrium decisions generally demonstrate a degree of robustness. These insights may help supply chain managers respond rationally to supply disruptions and properly develop pricing strategies by taking into account the reference price effect.