Unlocking Green Export Opportunities: Empirical Insights from Southern Cone Economies

This paper develops a strategic framework that integrates the theoretical perspectives of evolutionary economic geography and economic complexity to identify green export opportunities. By combining feasibility factors—such as green specialization, relatedness, and trade inertia—with desirability criteria like income, equity, and low emissions, the framework offers a comprehensive approach to identify green export diversification. The empirical application, focused on the Southern Cone (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay), suggests that economies should prioritize green opportunities aligned with their existing capabilities, gradually expanding into higher-risk, higher-return options. The study provides tailored green export diversification portfolios for each country, identifying key opportunities in renewable energy products for Argentina and Brazil, lithium-related inputs for Chile, biofuels for Paraguay, and green hydrogen for Uruguay. These findings offer valuable insights for the design of public policies aimed at fostering green export diversification.