Does the Future Look Irrigated? Evaluating the Likelihood of Irrigation Adoption Within Alabama

abstract: Farmers have time and again adopted new methods or technologies. However, recent increases in global temperatures and occurrences of extreme weather events, call for an urgency to address and reduce the risks associated with climate change. Irrigation is a key adaptation that reduces crop heat stress and enhances agricultural production. Alabama is considered water-rich but lately has experienced increased rainfall variability and temperature extremes. Various state-wide initiatives to increase irrigation have been implemented, but adoption remains limited. Existing studies have explored factors influencing irrigation uptake, but none have engaged in a state-level assessment of its adoption potential. In this study, we provide spatially explicit estimates of the potential to implement irrigation practices across the state. Moreover, we derive an irrigation adoption index map for Alabama to identify areas where implementation is more or less likely based on a multi-criteria analysis. The results highlight a large potential for expansion in areas that have high shares of existing irrigation. Such an analysis can enable targeted mobilization of resources towards areas where uptake is currently low but feasible through increased adaptation efforts. Additionally, these estimates can be further used to evaluate future water demands or conduct other regional analyses.