Citrus Production Losses in Florida Due to Hurricane Ian: Estimates from the Forecast-Production Gap

abstract: This paper estimates citrus production losses in Florida due to Hurricane Ian (2022) at the county level using a forecast-production gap methodology that compares pre-hurricane forecasted production to post-hurricane actual production. Based on this approach, Hurricane Ian caused an estimated 41 percent loss in citrus production statewide. Multiplied by contemporary on-tree per-box values, these production losses represent over $118 million in lost crop production value, although this estimate is associated with considerable uncertainty and could exceed $200 million. County-level production loss estimates agree well with estimates previously developed using a rapid assessment method based on the Hurricane Composite Intensity Index, supporting the index as a useful tool in the aftermath of storms. The year-over-year statewide citrus production decline of 60 percent (inclusive of non-hurricane causes) in 2022–2023 is the second largest percentage drop in 130 years of assessed data, exceeded only by the Great Freeze of 1894–1895. As climate change drives hurricane intensification along the Florida coast, the state's citrus industry will be increasingly vulnerable to massive losses.