Mechanisms of meteorological drought propagation to agricultural drought in China: insights from causality chain
Previous studies have overlooked the nonlinear dependency of drought propagation, limiting our understanding of its mechanisms. By establishing a causality chain, this study identifies the nonlinear propagation pathways of meteorological drought to agricultural drought across different climatic zones in China from 2000 to 2018 and elucidates the driving factors contributing to the divergences in propagation characteristics among these regions. The findings indicate a linear drought propagation time (DPT) of approximately two months, occurring around 25 times on average, demonstrating peer-to-peer drought propagation overall. Temperature and surface air pressure emerge as the primary driving factors, accounting for over 50% of the observed drought propagation. The interplay between precipitation (P), soil moisture (SM), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) explains the disparities in nonlinear propagation across different regions. Increased area wetness enhances nonlinear drought propagation, while linear propagation decreases. This study offers crucial insights for improving drought management and agricultural water resource strategies.
Authors
- Jie Xue (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-6324-4774)
- Ye Tuo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6170-2856)
- Xuan Ban (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8873-2585)
- Huaiwei Sun (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4873-0697)
- Baowei Yan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7938-6043)
- Hui Qin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8805-0015)
- Mengge Lu
- Zhiwen You
- Liping Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8012-1408)
- Lu Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9222-8923)
- Wenxin Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2838-6094)
- Xunlai Sun
Institutions
- Shihezi University (CN)
- Tibet University (CN)
- Yangtze University (CN)
- Norsk Hydro (Germany) (DE)
- Lund University (SE)
- Wuhan University of Technology (CN)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Wuhan University (CN)
- Yangtze Optical Electronic (China) (CN)
- Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (CN)
- Yangtze River Pharmaceutical Group (China) (CN)
- Hubei Academy of Environmental Sciences (CN)
- Huazhong University of Science and Technology (CN)
- Technical University of Munich (DE)
- University of Glasgow (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- npj natural hazards.
- Published
- 2025-03-04
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00073-8
- Citations
- 25
- Primary Topic
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 27.63
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Swedish National Space Agency