A Geospatial Analysis Approach to Investigate Effects of Wildfires on Vegetation, Hydrological Response, and Recovery Trajectories in a Mediterranean Watershed

Wildfires are frequently observed in watersheds with a Mediterranean climate and seriously affect vegetation, soil, hydrology, and ecosystems as they cause abrupt changes in land cover. Assessing wildfire effects, as well as the recovery process, is critical for mitigating their impacts. This paper presents a geospatial analysis approach that enables the investigation of wildfire effects on vegetation, soil, and hydrology. The prediction of regeneration potential and the period needed for the restoration of hydrological behavior to pre-fire conditions is also presented. To this end, the catastrophic wildfire that occurred in August 2021 in the wider area of Varybobi, north of Athens, Greece, is used as an example. First, an analysis of the extent and severity of the fire and its effect on the vegetation of the area is conducted using satellite imagery. The history of fires in the specific area is then analyzed using remote sensing data and a regrowth model is developed. The effect on the hydrological behavior of the affected area was then systematically analyzed. The analysis is conducted in a spatially distributed form in order to delineate the critical areas in which immediate interventions are required for the rapid restoration of the hydrological behavior of the basin. The period required for the restoration of the hydrological response is then estimated based on the developed vegetation regrowth models. Curve Numbers and post-fire runoff response estimations were found to be quite similar to those derived from measured data. This alignment shows that the SCS-CN method effectively reflects post-fire runoff conditions in this Mediterranean watershed, which supports its use in assessing hydrological changes in wildfire-affected areas. The results of the proposed approach can provide important data for the restoration and protection of wildfire-affected areas.