Impact of Food Imports on Water Pressure in Food Production in China: An Analysis from the Perspective of Virtual Water Trade

Motivation: Breaking through the constraints of water scarcity is a crucial factor for the efficient and sustainable production of food in China. Objective: To explore a new strategy to alleviate the water resource pressure in food production in China, based on the theory of resource flow, this study empirically explores the relationship between food imports and the water pressure in food production in China from the perspective of virtual water trade. Data and Method: This study collects panel data from 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2003 to 2020 and employs methods such as the two-way fixed effects model, instrumental variable approach, and spatial Durbin model for empirical analysis. Results: (1) China’s net food imports surged from −0.000397 billion tons (Bt) in 2003 to 0.118325 Bt in 2020, with a rapid annual growth rate of about 9.37%. Changes in net imports are accompanied by virtual water flows. Between 2003 and 2020, the virtual water content of China’s net food imports increased from 31.7086 Bt to 187.7511 Bt, a yearly increase of 10.39%. (2) Virtual water for food imports has a mitigating effect on the water pressure in food production. Every 0.100 Bt of virtual water imported will reduce the water pressure in food production index by 0.026. The impact has a spatial spillover effect. Moreover, as there is high pressure on water resources in food production in northern regions and major grain-producing areas, the mitigating effect of food imports on the pressure of water resources in food production is also enhanced. The quantile regression found that as the water pressure in food production increases, the mitigating effect of virtual water for food imports on the water pressure in food production gradually increases. Implications: This study examines the relevance of resource flow theory within the context of food trade, thereby broadening the scope of research on virtual water trade in food. Additionally, this study offers valuable insights for the development of strategies aimed at mitigating the pressure on water resources associated with food production in China.