Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate

Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warming of hot season would be amplified under global warming, and refer to it as "hot-season-gets-hotter" phenomenon. The amplified hot season warming is closely tied to the amplified warming of hot temperature percentiles. The hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon is mainly due to the rainfall delay and most evident in the Amazon, where spring is warming by almost 1 K more than the annual mean and the 99th percentile temperatures are warming ~30% more than the mean by the end of 21st century in a high emission scenario. Comparing experiments with and without land-atmosphere coupling, it is further found that the rainfall delay is initially driven by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and then substantially amplified by positive soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. In the satellite period, observations consistently show that the hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon has already emerged along with the rainfall delay in the Amazon. Intensified hot and dry spring climate can enhance risks of drought, heatwaves and wildfires, threatening the Amazon forest and habitats in the tropics.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-03-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57501-6
Citations
23
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
25.42

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article

Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate

Hongqiang Dong, Jian Lu, Lu Dong, Peili Wu et al.
23 citations
Nature Communications
Climate variability and models
25.42
article

Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate

Hongqiang Dong, Jian Lu, Lu Dong, Peili Wu, Fengfei Song, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Lixin Wu, Tianjun Zhou
article en
23 citations

Abstract

Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warming of hot season would be amplified under global warming, and refer to it as "hot-season-gets-hotter" phenomenon. The amplified hot season warming is closely tied to the amplified warming of hot temperature percentiles. The hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon is mainly due to the rainfall delay and most evident in the Amazon, where spring is warming by almost 1 K more than the annual mean and the 99th percentile temperatures are warming ~30% more than the mean by the end of 21st century in a high emission scenario. Comparing experiments with and without land-atmosphere coupling, it is further found that the rainfall delay is initially driven by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and then substantially amplified by positive soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. In the satellite period, observations consistently show that the hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon has already emerged along with the rainfall delay in the Amazon. Intensified hot and dry spring climate can enhance risks of drought, heatwaves and wildfires, threatening the Amazon forest and habitats in the tropics.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
Met Office (GB), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US), Chifeng University (CN), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CN), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Laoshan Laboratory, Ocean University of China (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Climate variability and models
25.42
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