Assessment of the influence of internal and external factors on the Kazakhstan stock market

The purpose of this study is to identify internal and external factors and assess their impact on the dynamics of the Kazakhstan stock market. Research methodology . The work used comparative analysis, multiple regression analysis and factor analysis. Internal factors included real GDP growth rates, inflation rate and the national currency exchange rate. External factors were represented by world oil prices, the Russian ruble exchange rate and the Russian stock index. Originality/value of the study . The study provides valuable information on the dynamics of the Kazakhstan stock market and its dependence on key macroeconomic indicators. These data can be used to improve forecasting methods and decision-making in the market, which is important for investors and analysts. Research results . Based on the level of volatility and average yield, the entire analyzed period was divided into three sub-periods: favorable or a period of rapid market growth, unfavorable or a period of decline, and a period of moderate favorability or market recovery. The results of the analysis showed that the inflation rate and the Russian stock index have a significant impact on the Kazakhstan stock market. Inflation has the greatest impact, contributing to the growth of the index when its level increases. The Russian stock index also has a significant impact, demonstrating a high correlation with the KASE index. At the same time, the national currency rate and world oil prices showed a weak impact on the Kazakhstan stock market. A correlation matrix of returns of the main world stock indices was constructed.