Using Hypothetical Probability Discounting to Measure Socially Influenced Risk-Taking during a Viral Outbreak

Abstract During the COVID-19 pandemic, citizens were asked to avoid social contact to prevent the spread of the virus. In two separate online studies, we used three hypothetical scenarios within a probability discounting task to investigate whether participants would risk a monetary fine to break “lockdown” conditions when urged to by different types of social contacts (friends, parents, partners) and social contacts of varying proximity to the participant (close to distant). In Study 1, 230 participants took greater risks for their parents and partners than for their friends when asked to allow a home visit, lend gardening equipment, or drive someone to a medical center. In Study 2, a different sample of 231 participants took greater risks for those they identified as socially close compared to those more socially distant when asked to attend a birthday party, lend gardening equipment, or drive someone to a medical center. Participants were more likely to take risks in the medical scenario than in the other two scenarios. There was no evidence of an effect of age on risk-taking, but men were more likely to report that they would take risks than women. Our results have implications for researchers and health promoters because understanding the effects of social influence on risk-taking behavior—particularly in the face of a viral pandemic—could lead to more effective interventions to minimize risk to society.