Optimal Operation Life Decision Model for Electrical Equipment in the New Power Systems Considering Technical and Economic Factors

The new power system with new energy as the main body put forward higher requirements for the flexibility and reliability of the operation of the distribution network, forcing the distribution network to improve the level of refinement of equipment management and reasonably determining the replacement time of equipment. Therefore, this paper proposed a decision-making method for optimal replacement time of distribution network equipment by combining economic and technical life. Considering the uniform deterioration trend of operation and maintenance costs and the failure trend of maintenance costs, a dynamic economic life estimation model was constructed taking into account the time value of money. Considering internal factors and external factors, a technical life prediction model was constructed based on least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM), and the parameters were determined by the improved gray wolf optimization algorithm. An empirical study was carried out on a 10kV distribution transformer in a province. The results showed that: the economic life reflects the economic benefits of the equipment, which can improve the level of lean operation and maintenance, and the calculation result was 14 years; the technical life reflects the operating status of the equipment, which can improve safety and reliability, and the predicted result was 16 years. In the end, the optimal replacement time decision result was 14 years, which not only ensured the safe operation, but also met the purpose of saving costs.