On the way from personalism to institutionalization: the transformation of personal power political regimes in Belarus, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

The purpose of the article is to identify the directions of evolution of personal power regimes in Belarus, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in the context of ensuring their stability. The index methods of A. Crowell and O.I. Zaznaev are used as a methodology for studying the legally established powers of the head of state (determining the form of government using the index of presidential and parliamentary powers and their relationship to each other); the author's index of institutionalization of the institute of the presidency is used to analyze the institutionalization of the institute of the presidency. After the formation of independent states in Belarus, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, personalistic regimes were formed and consolidated, which are characterized by specific personalities of the head of state, which determine the stability of the political system, and which is the main factor of legitimacy. In Belarus and Turkmenistan, trends towards increasing the institutionalization of the institution of the president began to gain momentum during the end of presidential terms and the analysis of the prospects for the departure of current leaders from the presidency. In Uzbekistan, the issue of creating institutions for the transfer of power will be postponed until the end of the presidential term of Sh. Mirziyoyev. In relation to the political regimes of Turkmenistan and Belarus, stability can be predicted in the medium term due to the constitutional consolidation of a wide range of presidential powers. In these States, the regime of personal power has transformed into an institutionalized, uncompetitive regime that has a high potential for stability even if the current leaders step down from the presidency. In the case of Uzbekistan, the regime of personal power remains in place, making it potentially vulnerable to internal and external threats. The thesis that institutionalization is a tool for solving the problems of stabilization and prevention of internal and external threats in the conditions of a personalistic regime is confirmed. The theoretical significance of the work lies in the fact that the results obtained during the index analysis of the post-Soviet states under consideration make it possible to clarify the concept of the regime of personal power and the directions of its possible evolution in a comparative perspective.