Estimating Leopard population sizes in western Mozambique using SNP-based capture–mark–recapture models

Reliable population size estimates are imperative for effective conservation and management, but are notoriously difficult to obtain for rare, cryptic species such as large carnivores. Genetic capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models can provide robust population size estimates and may be conducted noninvasively during a single sampling period. African leopards (<i>Panthera pardus</i>) are listed as vulnerable, with declining populations. However, population size estimates are rare for much of their range. Here, we provide population size estimates for leopards in the Limpopo (LNP) and Banhine (BNP) national parks and the Lebombo Conservancy (LC), in western Mozambique. We estimate population sizes using SNP-based CMR models derived from genetic information acquired noninvasively from scats collected across the sites. Additionally, we compare our density estimates with those derived from trophic scaling to provide inferences on the drivers of Leopard density in the region. We estimate populations of 87, 15, and 13 leopards in LNP, BNP, and LC, respectively. Population size estimates derived from trophic scaling suggest that leopards are limited by bottom-up prey resources in LNP and LC, but there is evidence for top-down regulation in BNP. Given the precariousness of Leopard populations in the region, we urge use of population monitoring using genetic CMR models to inform conservation and management.