Global, regional, and national temporal trends in prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years for chronic pulmonary disease, 1990–2021: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021

The prevalence of COPD remains concerning. Compared to 1990, the global prevalence of COPD in 2021 showed a stable or slightly increasing trend, with over half of the countries experiencing an annual increase in prevalence during the 1990-2021 period. Global mortality and DALYs associated with COPD showed a notable decline in 2021 compared to 1990. However, this trend exhibited significant heterogeneity across countries and regions, likely linked to differences in socioeconomic development. Countries in the high-middle and middle SDI regions were found to be more affected by period effects. From an age effect perspective, population aging has undoubtedly exacerbated the COPD burden. Regarding cohort effects, earlier birth cohorts demonstrated a stronger contribution to the increasing disease burden. While Higher levels of socioeconomic development can mitigate the adverse effects associated with earlier birth cohorts.