Estimation of the Purchase Commitment Value of Unsold Housing Using Real Options: Focused on LH’s Housing Development and Unsold CR REITs

The approach of guaranteeing the purchase of unsold housing units in LH Housing Development REITs is determined at a level sufficient to secure the minimum project cost for participation. This approach, which seeks the equilibrium point for discount sales rates acceptable in the market, has limitations as it is influenced by specific real estate market conditions and the preferences of project participants. Additionally, in the case of CR REITs for unsold housing, the determination of purchase guarantee rates requires a more proactive decision-making process, supplementing the traditional evaluation methods, as part of a policy tool for market stabilization. This study examines the cases of LH Housing Development REITs and unsold housing CR REITs to propose the adoption of a flexible policy support structure for the purchase guarantee mechanism in variable real estate market conditions. By incorporating a logical approach to calculating purchase guarantee values—using real options, specifically the put option value derived from the Black-Scholes option pricing model—into the existing project process, this study suggests that the extent of risk-sharing by policy support entities like LH Corporation and the acceptable sales risks for market participants can be evaluated more rationally. Furthermore, this framework can serve as a theoretical tool for similar project structures.