Forecasting cereal food production in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using theautoregressive integrated moving average model

There is a shortage in cereal production in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) due to unsuitable climatic conditions and high temperatures. The purpose of this study was to predict cereal food production in Saudi Arabia and enable policymakers to develop future strategies regarding the sustainability of cereal production and food security. The World Bank Development Indicators have provided the data for cereal food production; this data was gathered during the period 1961 to 2021. To interpret the data, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used. Based on the results, ARIMA (0,1,1) was the optimal model to perform forecasting. The optimal model was used to evaluate in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Thus, the forecast value of cereal food production in 2021 was 1,171,166.24 metric tons, while the actual value was 1,187,241.77 metric tons; the relative error was about -1.39%. This means the selected model has a good fitting effect. The projected value of cereal food production in the year 2030 will be 1,292,721.18 metric tons. Therefore, the research suggested various solutions for improving cereal food production in the KSA. Reactivate the role of extension services by promoting the transfer of innovations and technologies to produce cereal varieties suitable for production in the climatic conditions of the KSA. Furthermore, expanding external agricultural investment is necessary to improve the sustainability of food production and food security.