Trend and SWOT analysis of rice production, demand in Kutai Kartanegara Regency, Indonesia

The demand for rice is increasing along with consumer preferences and population growth. Therefore, the availability and sufficiency of rice is one of the most crucial challenges because rice is a staple food, the scarcity of which will affect the social life of the community. The demand for rice in Kutai Kartanegara Regency continues to increase, for this reason it is necessary to study in more depth the projected production and demand for rice as well as what strategies must be implemented in developing rice farming. The purpose of this study was to analyse the projection of rice production, the rice demand projections, and analyze rice farming development strategies. The research was conducted in Kutai Kartanegara Regency, East Kalimantan Province, Indonesia. There were seven sample sub-districts that became rice production centers, namely: Samboja, Muara Jawa, Loa Janan, Sebulu, Tenggarong Seberang, Muara Kaman, and Loa Kulu. Data were collected through key persons. This research utilised both primary and secondary data sources, employing data collection methods such as in-depth interviews, observation, and documentation. The acquired primary data was utilised in a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis. A total of 73 key informants were questioned, including 2 agricultural service officials, 7 sub-district heads, 28 village heads, 14 officials from the technical implementation section of the Agricultural Extension Centre, and 22 leaders of farmer groups. Secondary data was processed with double exponential smoothing for projection analysis. This investigation utilised secondary data spanning from 2015 to 2023. The results of the research showed that the increasing population growth was not in line with the demand for rice food in Kutai Kartanegara Regency. Rice production growth fluctuated and tended to decline in the period 2017 to 2021. Furthermore, for the period 2021 to 2023 there had been an increase. The difference between supply and demand for rice in the period 2015 to 2020 experienced a surplus and tended to decrease, even experienced a deficit starting in 2021 and is projected to continue experiencing a deficit until 2030. The result of the SWOT analysis of rice farming development applied an aggressive strategy. Based on the analysis of production projections, projections of rice demand for Kutai Kartanegara Regency, as well as obtaining various rice commodity development strategies, it can be recommended that the government adopt policies to maximize support for rice farming. It is hoped that the results of this research can be used as a reference for other researchers. Key words: rice production, rice demand, projections, development strategies, rice farming