Analysis of the influencing factors of emission trading price in China

China established pilot carbon markets in 2013. In 2020, it set targets for carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050. China’s national carbon market officially commenced operations in 2021. Based on the national market and seven pilot markets, this study established the factors influencing carbon trading prices by examining market participants, macroeconomics, energy prices, carbon prices in other markets, etc. Asymmetrical development among the seven pilot cities, for which the study employed a mixed-effects model, was the primary factor impacting carbon prices. The carbon prices in the pilot cities cannot be extrapolated to the entire country. In the national carbon market, where the study employed a multiple regression lag model, the SSE index was positively correlated with carbon prices, whereas the Dow Jones index had no significant effect on carbon prices in terms of macroeconomics. Coal and natural gas prices were negatively correlated with carbon prices, whereas oil prices were positively correlated with energy prices. The EU market prices have a positive correlation with prices in other markets. The significance of this study is that it covers the largest national Emissions Trading System (ETS) in the world and allows for comparing the characteristics of the Chinese market with those of other ETS markets. Additional studies, including more sectors, should be conducted as China’s ETS coverage increases.