Electrifying end-use demands: A rise in capacity and flexibility requirements

The electrification of end-uses where consumption patterns are linked to behavior, weather, and technology characteristics is expected to impact grid infrastructure in a variety of ways. One way to limit potential negative consequences of end-use electrification on grid infrastructure is through utilization of demand-side management strategies. Previous work has yet to address the simultaneous impact of electrifying building heating and cooling, and road transportation on capacity and the resulting flexibility requirements for the electrical grid. In this paper, two high-resolution models are combined to generate regional demand profiles for building heating, space cooling, passenger vehicles, and commercial road transportation. End-use energy demand profiles are generated for key sub-sectors, with 15-minute resolution, simulating large-scale end-use electrification by 2050 in British Columbia, Canada. Results show that simultaneous electrification in the building and road transportation sectors increases capacity and flexibility requirements by 93% and 320%, respectively. A synergy of demand-side measures limits the increase in capacity and flexibility requirements to 74% and 82%, respectively. Temporal resolution of demand models is critical in the determination of flexibility requirements as maximum positive ramping rates increase by 520% when changing from an hourly to a 15-minute resolution. • Ten individual building and transportation end-use demands are projected for 2050. • Electricity demand profiles are generated in 15-minute resolution. • Impact of EV charging and space heating control on load profiles is analyzed. • The timing and magnitude of peak electricity demands changes significantly. • Grid flexibility requirements are driven by electrification of commercial vehicles.