From indices to impacts using environmental and socio-economic clustering in Kenya

Arid and Semi-arid counties in Kenya. The Horn of Africa faces recurrent droughts, impacting its population. Global warming worsens these events, making early warning systems crucial. However, the link between hazard indices and actual impacts is unclear. This study identifies hazard indices responsible for drought impacts: malnutrition, milk production, and trekking distances to water. Using Spearman correlation and Random Forest regression, relationships between drought indices and impact datasets are investigated. Counties are clustered by vulnerability factors (poverty, water access, etc.) to identify key drought impact drivers. The performance of cluster-specific models is compared to a global model covering all counties. Trekking distances to water correlate with meteorological drought indices (2–6 months), indicating sensitivity to short-term droughts. Milk production associates with various indices (5–24 months), showing complex drought effects on livestock. Malnutrition links to vegetation- and streamflow-based indices (5–24 months), highlighting nutritional deficits from prolonged droughts. Clustering regions by vulnerability factors enhances the hazard-impact relationship, confirming regional characteristics' influence on impact severity. Effective models for trekking distances were created in clusters indicative of water access, sanitation, poverty, and aridity. Accurate malnutrition models were built in clusters based on aridity, food consumption, water access, sanitation, and poverty. These findings highlight the need for region-specific drought monitoring and management to enhance resilience in Kenya's arid and semi-arid counties. • Random Forest used to analyse drought indices – drought impacts relationships. • Different drought indices link variably to impacts, due to regional vulnerabilities. • Clustering counties by vulnerability factors helps discerning impact-hazard links. • Water access, sanitation, poverty, and aridity are key factors. • Findings aid targeted drought resilience strategies.