The moderating role of ageing growth on the impact of demographic factors across the Italian provinces

In Italy, the ageing process varies from one province to another, with some ageing faster than others. At the beginning of the 2000s, the country was divided into two groups: the southern and island provinces were younger, while the central and northern provinces were more advanced. In the following years, the younger provinces experienced a greater increase in the mean age, reducing the demographic differences between the macro-areas. This study aims to assess whether and how the contribution of the demographic components, i.e. fertility and migration, to the slowdown in ageing differs according to the speed of the phenomenon over the period 2002-2022. The provinces were divided into groups according to the quartile of the mean age growth rate and regression models were implemented in which the speed of ageing is considered as a moderating variable that can influences the strength of the relationship between an independent and a dependent variable and then entered through an interaction term. The results show that fertility is crucial in slowing down ageing, with a greater impact than migration. The fertility of Italian women has a predominant influence on the mean age, while that of foreign women has a less pronounced effect. The presence of foreigners, although increasing, does not compensate for the effects of demographic ageing. Furthermore, the speed of ageing creates differences in the impact of fertility and migration on mean age, with their impact increasing as the speed of ageing increases.