Demographic implications on education: a case study in the province of Mantova

The decreasing birth rates in Italy are rapidly transforming the demographic landscape, with forecasts indicating a significant reduction in the youth population over the next ten years. In this work, using data provided by the National Institute of Statistics and the Ministry of Education and Merit, a statistical model has been developed to estimate the future composition of the student population in the province of Mantova. Specifically, demographic forecasts, school participation rates, and other relevant parameters were analyzed to create a robust predictive framework and answer the following types of questions: "How will the student population change in the province of Mantova, even at the level of school districts, over the next ten years? How many more or fewer classes will there be? What effects will this have on staffing?”. While focusing on the province of Mantova as a case study, the project aims to develop a solid methodology that can be used in all Italian provinces, leveraging the informative resources of official statistics and public administrations, at this historical moment when we are faced with digital innovation and the development of artificial intelligence. The results of the conducted analysis, besides providing a valuable contribution to local policy-level educational planning, can, once extended nationally, bring objective data into the debate on government educational policy choices, thus helping to prepare the Italian educational system for evolving demographic challenges.