Analysis of Systematic Trade-offs between Military and Healthcare Expenditure alongside GDP Growth of Select Asian and Western Exporting Economies in the 21st Century

This study explores the complexity in the trade-offs between military expenditure, healthcare expenditure, and GDP growth across select Asian nations and major weapon-exporting countries, examining how nations allocate finite resources between national security and human well-being over the past two decades. Using a systems science approach, the research integrates Granger causality testing to analyze temporal and directional relationships among GDP growth, military expenditure, and healthcare expenditure, uncovering their dynamic interdependencies. The methodology includes trend and slope analysis, Granger causality testing, outlier detection, and clustering to identify heterogeneity in resource allocation strategies. Developed, weapon-exporting nations exhibit complementary trends, with strong causality between GDP growth and healthcare expenditure, reflecting economic stability and balanced allocation patterns. In contrast, developing Asian nations display fragmented and volatile relationships due to resource constraints and inefficiencies. Outlier analysis reveals country-specific dynamics, such as conflict-driven spending in Afghanistan and Myanmar and growth-focused strategies in China. Temporal trends show that economic crises, like the COVID-19 pandemic, significantly disrupt GDP growth but have limited long-term effects on healthcare or military expenditures. Clustering analysis identifies distinct groups of nations, shaped by economic capacity and geopolitical pressures. The findings emphasize the need for tailored policy frameworks to balance national security and human well-being, particularly in developing nations facing structural challenges. For sustainable development, policies must align resource allocation with economic priorities, geopolitical contexts, and societal needs.