Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Neofusicoccum laricinum in China

The long-term spatial–temporal variation in shoot blight of larch in China has not yet been clearly defined, and the mechanisms behind its long-distance spread remain unknown. This study, based on the historical occurrence dataset of shoot blight of larch in China, used spatial statistical analysis to describe the spatial changes in the disease across five stages since 1973. Subsequently, the study utilized Geo Detector and Random Forest models to investigate the relationship between the spread and occurrence of shoot blight of larch and seven influencing factors. The results revealed the following: (1) The spread of shoot blight of larch in China exhibits significant directionality, with the affected regions distributed along a northeast–southwest axis, and the epicenter of the spread is shifting southwestward; (2) Shandong and Jilin provinces served as the initial introduction points for shoot blight of larch, with most infected counties in other provinces experiencing outbreaks between 1989 and 1996, accompanied by a noticeable spread to neighboring provinces; (3) the occurrence of shoot blight of larch demonstrates a significant positive spatial clustering effect, forming a monocentric “core–periphery” structure centered in Liaoning Province, where kernel density values decrease gradually outward from the core. Geo Detector identified “seedling planting area” as a potential spatial driving factor for the disease. These findings underscore the critical influence of the combined effects of human activities and natural factors in shaping the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of shoot blight of larch.