Towards desirable futures for the circular adaptive reuse of buildings: A participatory approach

• Research on adaptive reuse often overlooks multi-criteria integration in decisions. • This paper presents a mixed-methods approach for adaptive reuse decision-making. • The method blends cross-impact analysis, scenarios, and participatory workshops. • AI-generated narratives and visuals enhance participatory workshop outcomes. • 'Big picture' scenarios link to practical circular building adaptability strategies. Adaptive reuse of buildings offers a sustainable strategy for reducing global CO2 emissions by repurposing existing structures, conserving resources, reducing the need to extract new materials, and minimizing waste. However, the decision-making process in adaptive reuse projects is often complex, involving conflicting criteria and diverse stakeholders. Current approaches tend to polarize alternatives, focusing either on broad functional use or specific design options, which can limit decision effectiveness and quality. This study addresses these challenges by developing a participatory mixed-methods approach that integrates Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis with creative scenario-building techniques, including generative AI and participatory workshops. This approach balances the extremes of current decision-making processes, offering a more comprehensive overview of desirable futures for decision-makers. The methodology was applied to create 15 “big picture” circular adaptive reuse scenarios, each incorporating circular building adaptability (CBA) strategies, and enriched with AI generated narratives and visualizations. These scenarios provide stakeholders with a nuanced understanding of potential future pathways, enhancing decision-making processes. This mixed-method approach demonstrates the potential of participatory CIB scenario development in advancing circularity, offering a valuable tool for navigating the complexities of adaptive reuse decision-making.