Assessment of ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

Since the mid-20th century, the impact of global change on regional ecology has become increasingly significant, especially in the aspects of climate change and land use change. The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, located in the arid and semi-arid areas of northwest China, represents a typical ecologically vulnerable region. This study focuses on Xinjiang by incorporating temperature and precipitation variability into the ecological vulnerability assessment framework using the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model. The objective of this study was to assess the ecological vulnerability of Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020 and analyze the driving mechanisms behind these changes. The findings reveal a spatial distribution of ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang. From 2000 to 2020, the ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang initially increased and then decreased, with an upward trend from the northwest to the southeast. It reflects the differences in the natural environment and human activities among different regions, and region-specific ecological protection and restoration measures should be implemented based on the characteristics of each region. From 2000 to 2010, 36% of the study area has witnessed an increasing vulnerability while the precent was 25.3% for areas with decreasing vulnerability from 2010 to 2020. Xinjiang’s ecosystems are sensitive to climate change, with influencing factors including temperature and precipitation variability, accumulated temperature (≥ 10 °C), annual precipitation, Aridity Index (AI), and Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC).