An Analysis of the Capacity of Outdoor Earthquake Evacuation Sites in Daegu, South Korea: Assessing De Facto Population Dynamics and Accessibility Through the Geographic Information System (GIS)

This study evaluates urban resilience to earthquakes in Daegu Metropolitan City, South Korea, by analyzing outdoor evacuation sites through a dual-axis matrix framework to provide feasible solutions for enhancing urban resilience. Evacuation capacity was assessed by use of resident and de facto population data, while Geographic Information System (GIS) network analysis identified evacuation-feasible and evacuation-infeasible areas. The matrix categorizes areas along two axes: capacity (x-axis) and evacuation-infeasible areas (y-axis), facilitating targeted improvement strategies. Findings reveal that only 54 of 139 census blocks possess sufficient capacity and no evacuation-infeasible areas. For areas with adequate capacity but extensive infeasible areas, redistributing evacuation sites is recommended to improve accessibility. Areas with limited capacity but no infeasible areas require additional outdoor evacuation sites to accommodate the population. In regions constrained by both capacity and accessibility, establishing new evacuation sites within infeasible areas is essential. For critically low-capacity areas without infeasible areas, multi-use spaces, such as disaster prevention parks, are desirable to address evacuation needs. Lastly, areas lacking both capacity and accessibility urgently require new evacuation sites concentrated in infeasible areas. By simplifying complex variables into a capacity–accessibility matrix, this study integrates population dynamics, spatial accessibility, and site capacity, offering implementable solutions for earthquake preparedness in densely populated urban settings. Additionally, this approach supports urban planning efforts to mitigate seismic damage and enhance urban sustainability.