Assessing the Role of Energy Mix in Long-Term Air Pollution Trends: Initial Evidence from Poland

Air pollution remains a critical environmental and public health issue, requiring diverse research perspectives, including those related to energy production and consumption. This study examines the relationship between Poland’s energy mix and air pollution trends by integrating national statistical data on primary energy consumption and renewable energy sources over the past 15 years with air pollution measurements from the last eight years. The air pollution data, obtained from reference-grade monitoring stations, focus on particulate matter (PM). To address discrepancies in temporal resolution between daily PM measurements and annual energy sector reports, a bootstrapping method was applied within a regression framework to assess the overall impact of individual energy components on national air pollution levels. Seasonal decomposition techniques were employed to analyze the temporal dynamics of specific energy sources and their contributions to pollution variability. A key aspect of this research is the role of renewable energy sources in air quality trends. This study also investigates regional variations in pollution levels by analyzing correlations between geographic location, industrialization intensity, and the proportion of green areas across Poland’s administrative regions (Voivodeships). This spatially explicit approach provides deeper insights into the linkages between energy production and pollution distribution at a national scale. Poland presents a unique case due to its distinct energy mix, which differs significantly from the EU average, its persistently high air pollution levels, and recent regulatory changes. These factors create an ideal setting to assess the impact of energy sector transitions on environmental quality. By employing high-resolution spatiotemporal big data analysis, this study leverages measurements from over 100 monitoring stations and applies advanced statistical methodologies to integrate multi-scale energy and pollution datasets. From a PM perspective, the regression analysis showed that High-Methane Gas had a neutral impact on PM concentrations, making it a suitable transition energy source, while renewables exhibited negative regression coefficients and coal-based sources showed positive coefficients. The findings offer new perspectives on the long-term environmental effects of shifts in national energy policies.