Study on the risk of comorbid hypertension in multiple chronic diseases

Hypertension is a common chronic disease in the elderly, with complex causes and multiple complications, making it a key comorbidity risk factor for chronic diseases. Using a hypothetical cohort from the CHARLS dataset (n=19,283) and supplemented by CLHLS (n=14,982), we employed a multi-state transition probability model to calculate hypertension incidence under various chronic disease conditions and its marginal impact on other chronic diseases. We ranked the conditional incidence of hypertension across 13 chronic disease combinations and identified key comorbidities. Additionally, we ranked the marginal impact of hypertension on other chronic diseases. (1) Among common chronic diseases, hypertension poses the highest risk in healthy elderly individuals in healthy state. (2) In men, the highest risk factors for hypertension, in descending order, are memory-related diseases, stroke, diabetes, heart disease, and dyslipidemia. In women, these are cancer, stroke, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and heart disease. (3) Liver and stomach diseases “reduce” the risk of hypertension in men, while chronic lung disease, memory-related diseases, stomach disease, and kidney disease “reduce” the risk in women. (4) Hypertension in men does not significantly increase the risk of other chronic diseases, but it does in women. (5) Gender differences in hypertension among the elderly stem from differences in the types of comorbidities of chronic disease between men and women, rather than gender itself.