Pathways for reducing carbon emissions in county-level transportation: A life cycle perspective and multi-scenario analysis

Energy-related carbon emissions from the transportation sector are one of the major obstacles to achieving global carbon reduction targets. Current research on transportation energy mainly focuses on the energy end-use stage, with a lack of simulations covering both the front-end and end-use stages of transportation energy. This study, from a life-cycle perspective, conducts a carbon emission simulation for county-level transportation. Based on the 2019 transportation data of Huadu District, Guangzhou, the study combines life-cycle assessment (LCA) with the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) to simulate changes in transportation carbon emissions from 2020 to 2050. The results indicate that: (1) The Energy-Saving scenario has the greatest carbon reduction potential, capable of reducing carbon emissions by 75 %. (2) Energy efficiency factors have the most significant carbon reduction effect in transportation. (3) There is a carbon transfer phenomenon from "Tank-to-Wheel" to "Well-to-Tank" in transportation energy. (4) Embodied carbon accounts for 40 %, while operational carbon accounts for 60 % of the entire transportation energy life cycle. Based on the above results, the study suggests that the government should increase policy support and technological innovation, invest in public transportation infrastructure, and strengthen carbon management throughout the entire lifecycle to comprehensively enhance the carbon emission reduction effects of transportation energy. • LEAP combined with LCA is effective for calculating transportation carbon emissions. • Technological upgrades are the most effective way to reduce carbon emissions in county transportation. • Green energy sources offer significant carbon reduction benefits in energy production and conversion. • Structural optimization with green energy shifts carbon emissions from operational to embodied carbon. • Boosting public transport and rail/water freight can reshape energy use and aid carbon reduction.