Pointing out the pattern: Modelling human-environmental dynamics in Etruria during the 1st millennium BCE

• Application of computational methods not commonly applied to Etruscan contexts. • Modelling of relationships between settlement locations and agricultural suitability in Etruria from the 8th to the 1st centuries BCE. • Analysis of three case studies reveals settlement strategies shaped by environmental and economic factors. • Computational methods and modelling offer new insights on how Etruscan cities organised and managed their territories. This paper analyses settlement patterns using data from several archaeological surveys in Central Italy over the last 70 years, focussing on the Orientalising, Archaic, Classical and Hellenistic periods (700–30 BCE). The first two in particular represent a crucial time for the development of Etruscan urban, social, and economic structures. Employing Point Pattern Analysis (PPA), we investigate site location patterns, environmental covariate relationships, and land suitability, examining variations over time. These centuries witnessed significant landscape restructuring, with Bronze Age settlements giving way to larger, defensively positioned sites, marking the emergence of Etruscan metropoles. The consolidation of urban, social, and political structures peaked between the 7th and 6th centuries BCE, driven by land and resource exploitation. However, the 5th century saw site contraction due to declining maritime supremacy and Rome’s rising influence, with the northern sector adapting more successfully. Despite the uneven application of PPA in Etruscan archaeology, its integration offers deeper insights into Etruscan settlement patterns. Our study leverages advanced computational methods and Free and Open-Source Software to provide robust, updated analyses, contributing to the evolving interdisciplinary landscape of Etruscan studies.