A comparative analysis of value-added forecasts of rainfall in different agroclimatic zones of Assam

The present study is designed to investigate the skillfulness of value addition in the case of forecasted rainfall data in terms of the level of accuracy over the direct model-derived outputs with respective observed rainfall across six agroclimatic zones of Assam during the monsoon season in 2023. The district-wise daily data of three categories e.g., model forecast, value added and actual rainfall provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD) have been compiled agroclimatic zone wise and compared. Correlations and regressions were performed to examine the effectiveness of value addition. It was found that the value-added rainfall had higher correlations (r = 0.52 and R2 = 0.26) with the actual rainfall compared to model forecast rainfall (r = 0.42 and R2 = 0.20) in Assam. Hence, it can be said that the value-added data was more skillful in predicting rainfall compared to model forecast rainfall for the 2023 monsoon season.