SARIMA-based time series analysis of rainfall and temperature for the Tarai region of Uttarakhand

The study was conducted at the Department of Agrometeorology, GBPUAT, Pantnagar under the Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva (GKMS) Scheme. The meteorological data on temperature and rainfall for the period of 1990-2022 collected from the Norman E Borlaug Crop Research Centre, Pantnagar, were used to develop a seasonal model using MINITAB software. The software used the monthly input data for the years 1990-2017 to develop the best Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting the variables on monthly basis. The forecasted values using SARIMA for the time period (2018-2022) were used to validate the model against the observed data and it was observed that the SARIMA (0,0,0)(1,0,1)12 was found suitable for rainfall and minimum temperature prediction and SARIMA (0,0,2)(1,0,0)12 for maximum temperature prediction.