Simulation of bio-physical parameters and yield of wheat under projected climate during mid-century

The experiment was conducted at the research farm of Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, during the rabi seasons of 2021-22 and 2022-23 to simulate biophysical parameters viz leaf area index (LAI), biomass, and yield for the mid-century (2040–2069) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios using validated CERES-wheat model. The duration of wheat was projected to be shortened while biomass accumulation was projected to increase. The LAI showed a noticeable decrement during the grain-filling stage. Furthermore, the model simulated decrease in yield by -5.78% and -3.32% for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Among the phenology as simulated using CERES wheat model, the grain-filling stage was identified as the most sensitive period for biophysical parameters under both the projected climate scenarios.