Climate change impacts on the accumulation of growing degree days for corn in central Mexico

Temperature is the main driving factor for plant development and growth and determines, in an important way, crop yields and is projected to increase under various climate change scenarios, which is expected to affect the thermo-sensitive crop like corn. Therefore, an attempt has been made to identify the spatio-temporal behavior of temperature, through the accumulation of growing degree days (GDD) in the Atlacomulco Rural Development District (ARDD) of Mexico. The maximum and minimum temperatures for the historical period 1985-2017 and projected under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios for distant time horizon (2061-2080) were analysed. It was identified that the average GDD in the ARDD corresponds to 1,440 ºC, being the northern zone the one with the highest accumulation with up to 1800 ºC. SSP2-4.5 identifies an increase of 298 ºC with respect to historical values, while SSP5-8.5 indicates the greatest increase of up to 33% in the accumulation of GDD with an average value of 1,914 ºC. The warming that is projected in the distant horizon allows identifying warm characteristics in the ARDD, which could increase corn production in this temperate climate.