Trajectories of ILS receipt and subsequent dual-system involvement: Examining the role of out-of-home placement type

Prior literature using data from the National Youth in Transition Database (NYTD) has found that rates of independent living services (ILS) receipt are not uniform across youth aging out of foster care. At least two gaps in this literature remain: Research has been limited to cross sectional analyses and the degree to which specific placement types associate with ILS receipt is unclear. Additionally, given high rates of delinquency among transition aged youth, research on youth receiving ILS needs to prioritize understanding how child welfare system trajectories predict dual-system onset. Using a multistate model and administrative data in the United States, this study asks the following questions: (1) How does ILS receipt vary as a function of placement type? and (2) Among youth who receive ILS, how does placement type associate with dual system involvement onset? The NYTD Services file and Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) 6-month files were used to construct longitudinal data identifying youths’ ILS receipt status, delinquency status, and current placement type for consecutive 6-month fiscal year (FY) periods. Additional time-fixed measures on select youth demographics were included. Youth were categorized into one of five mutually exclusive states in each 6-month period: 1) not receiving ILS and not delinquent, 2) receiving ILS and not delinquent, 3) not receiving ILS and delinquent, 4) receiving ILS and delinquent, and 5) emancipated. A Markov multistate model was fit to examine how placement type and demographics predicted transitions between states. Group home and institution placements predicted decreased probability of starting ILS (HR = 0.79, p < 0.05), and relative foster care placements predicted decreased probability of starting ILS (HR = 0.90, p < 0.05) and increased probability of stopping ILS (HR = 1.28, p < 0.05). Trial home visits stand out as being predictive of dual-system onset for youth receiving ILS (HR = 4.05, p < 0.05). Hispanic youth experienced greater ILS instability, being more likely to uptake services (HR = 1.24, p < 0.05) but also more likely to stop receiving services (HR = 1.28, p < 0.05). Findings indicate that agencies should prioritize ILS outreach efforts around issues of recruitment and retention when youth change placement types. Agencies should also consider providing additional supports to youth transferring to trial home visits to prevent delinquency.