Beyond Green capitalism: Global scenarios for fast societal transitions toward sustainability

• Introduction of functionalist and neo-Gramscian state theory into scenario building. • Development of six qualitative fast sustainability transition (FST) scenarios. • Emergence of environmental, socio-ecological and deep-ecological states. • Scenario storylines linked with quantifiable scenario objectives and policies. • High structural barriers and risks to successful and timely transitions. Addressing the theoretical underpinnings of state involvement in transformative societal changes, this study employs a neo-Gramscian and functionalist framework to develop six Fast Sustainability Transitions (FST) scenarios: Greener growth (FST1), Greener inclusive growth (FST2), Survivalist capitalist economies (FST3), Greener South-led development (FST4), Sufficiency economies (FST5) and Gaia economies (FST6). These scenarios depict different pathways through which states approach ‘sustainability’, emphasizing reductions in the world economy's scale and shifts toward post-growth and/or ecocentric societies. The scenarios underscore the necessity of structural changes in the global politico-economic system alongside technological advancements. While FST1-6 outline opportunities for fast societal transformation catalyzed through ‘Black Swans’, they also point to significant obstacles to timely transitions. To build bridges between policy research and technology-focused modelling we complement the storylines and associated policies with a proposal facilitating the introduction of the scenarios into quantitative models.