Advancing just transition: The role of biomass co-firing in emission reductions and employment for coal regions

As efforts to mitigate carbon emissions intensify, the issue of justice in the transition process has gained significant attention. The environmental impacts of low-carbon technologies, such as renewable energy, have been widely evaluated. This study develops an integrated model to quantify the employment effects of biomass co-firing retrofitting for coal plants and to explore its optimal ratio. We also modified a plant-level carbon emission calculation method to analyze the trade-off between carbon emissions and social benefits. Our results indicate that when the blend rate of coal and biomass exceeds 90%, there are noticeable changes in job creation. However, the maximum job creation value is negative, suggesting that biomass co-firing technology is not an effective choice for achieving a just transition during the large-scale coal phase-out process, and it is less competitive compared to renewable energy. Additionally, we find that generation efficiency is linearly negatively correlated with the blend rate. Moreover, carbon emission intensity and job intensity are positively correlated linearly, while there is a nonlinear negative correlation between job intensity and the blend ratio. Overall, biomass co-firing appears insufficient for a just transition in coal phase-out, indicating a need for regionally adaptive blend ratios for optimal operation.